Welcome back to KPA Wealth. — Sales are slowing, inventory is climbing, but somehow, home prices are still rising. We’ll look at the latest numbers from the National Association of Realtors, break down why affordability is still crushing buyer activity, and question how prices can continue to defy logic.

• Sales Are Stuck, But Prices Still Climbing? Something Doesn’t Add Up

• Today’s Mortgage Rates

Sales Are Stuck, But Prices Still Climbing? Something Doesn’t Add Up

According to the latest data from the National Association of Realtors, existing-home sales dropped 2.7% in June, landing at an annual pace of 3.93 million. That’s not just lower than May — it’s basically unchanged from a year ago.

No shock there. Affordability is crushing demand.

Prices Keep Going Up... But Why?

Here’s what blows my mind: the median home price hit $435,300 in June, a record for that month and up 2% from last year.

Think about that for a second — how does that even make sense? Sales are slow. Inventory is up. Buyers are cautious. Rates are where they are. Yet prices are still climbing?

It feels completely backwards. Fewer people are buying, but the cost of buying is still going up. It’s like the market is trying to defy gravity.

I get that inventory is still tight — 15.9% higher than last year, sure, but it actually ticked down from May. And with more sellers pulling listings or letting them expire, it’s clear a lot of folks would rather wait it out than negotiate right now.

Realtor.com’s Danielle Hale put it well:

Yeah. No one wants to blink first — buyers want affordability, sellers want yesterday’s prices.

Mortgage Rates: Still the Big Roadblock

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.91% as of Wednesday (My rates are better). That’s the biggest issue right now. Rates in the high 6s to low 7s have basically frozen the move-up market and sidelined a ton of first-time buyers.

Lawrence Yun from NAR said if rates dropped to around 6%, we could see 160,000 renters become first-time buyers and a big wave of existing homeowners finally making moves.

I completely agree. There’s still a lot of pent-up demand, but the numbers just don’t pencil right now for most people.

What is really happening…

This isn’t a crash. It’s a standoff.

Buyers aren’t going to overpay at 7%. Sellers don’t want to give up their 3% mortgage and take a haircut on price. So we’re all just... waiting.

If you’re a buyer, now’s the time to prep, run numbers, build strategy, and get ready to act when the opportunity hits. Because when rates finally dip, this market could flip fast.

I can help you build a solid buying strategy…

If you’re a seller, just know: today’s buyers are calculating everything to the dollar. Pricing right and being flexible is more important than ever.

This lull won’t last forever. But it’s fair to ask; how long can prices keep rising when sales keep dropping?

🏠 Today’s Mortgage Rates

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Kyle Allgair
CEO of KPA Wealth
📞 (279) 977-8149 | ✉️ [email protected]
🌐 KPAhomeloans.com

Kyle Allgair is the CEO of KPA Wealth, and is continuously helping clients build wealth through real estate and strategic financial planning. Contact him for personalized advice on achieving your financial goals.