Welcome back to Wealth Weekly. The fed kept rates the same as expected at a borrowing rate targeted between 4.25%-4.5% and came out expecting inflation to continue to stay high with lower economic growth - This sounds a lot like stagflation. They will keep denying it, but it is.

A new segment today: AI Tools that can boom your business. PI or Presentation Intelligence is the ultimate tool for improving on your presentability.

Today’s Topics

• How the Fed’s Interest Rate Policy Will Shape 2025 Markets

• Best Presentation AI Tools 2025: Pi Is the Hidden Gem

• AI & Jobs: What Amazon Just Announced

• Dutch Bros (BROS) Stock Analysis Q1 2025

• Today’s Mortgage Rates + 2025 Outlook

How the Fed’s Interest Rate Policy Will Shape 2025 Markets

The Fed just revealed their plan for future rates. The Fed’s interest rate policy in 2025 is increasingly leaning toward easing, with markets now pricing in a September cut. We knew this already, however the Fed is expecting to make at least two rate reductions later this year. Markets are now pricing in a 58% chance of a rate cut in September, a 36% chance in October, and 42% odds of a second cut by December.

As someone who’s tracked economic cycles and market sentiment for as long as I can remember, I can tell you—this setup screams stagflation outlook 2025.

Let’s look at the signals:

• Markets are at or near all-time highs

• Unemployment remains low

• Yet the Fed is forecasting slower GDP and unemployment climbing to 4.5%

That's not a mix you'd expect in a healthy growth environment. Instead, it looks like inflation is proving sticky—possibly fueled by rising tariffs and Middle East-driven oil prices—while growth is cooling. If this isn’t the early phase of stagflation, I don’t know what is.

Here's something the headlines aren’t emphasizing: seven Fed members don’t want cuts, yet the institution is clearly laying the groundwork for them. Why? Well, one under-discussed but massive factor is the debt wall.

In 2025, around $9.2 trillion of U.S. Treasury debt matures—about 30% of all marketable debt—and more than half of it comes due before July. The math is simple: high rates mean expensive refinancing. If the Fed lowers rates just in time, the government can roll over its debt at more manageable yields.

That might sound conspiratorial, but it's just financial mechanics. The Fed guides markets, markets price it in, and the Treasury gets a break. It's tactical.

My read? This isn’t about engineering a soft landing anymore—it’s about balancing economic optics with fiscal realities. Inflation’s back, but they may lower anyway. And if that’s the game we’re in, investors and everyday savers alike need to position accordingly.

🤖 Best Presentation AI Tools 2025: Pi Is the Hidden Gem

In my real estate and finance work, time is everything. That’s why I started using Pi (Presentation Intelligence)—an AI tool that’s become an essential part of my content workflow. Pi ranks among the top AI tools for finance professionals looking to enhance client engagement and save time.

Here’s what it does:

• Pulls together notes, images, PDFs, market data, even screenshots

• Instantly converts that into a polished, client-ready presentation

• Saves hours I’d normally spend in PowerPoint or Canva

Use case: I uploaded a property deal with comps and loan terms—Pi created a 3-slide investor pitch that looked like it came from a design firm.

If you’re in real estate, finance, or any client-facing role, this is one AI tool that actually delivers on its promise.

📰 AI & Jobs: What Amazon Just Announced

Amazon is making some moves. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy sent a new memo to the entire company stating that AI will be taking people’s jobs. He warned that every corner of the company will see job cuts due to progression with AI.

Should we be scared? Not really. If they are telling the truth at least. Jassy stated that although they are cutting some jobs due to automation, we will see new types of jobs open up for Amazon. Due to AI having advanced natures in terms of skill, these will likely be higher level skilled jobs.

This just means its extremely important that we increase our knowledge and use of AI. We are seeing more and more that AI is going to have an impact on jobs. Gallup released a poll that states about 40% of employees are already using AI in their everyday lives and the workplace. The same poll states that 15% of employees think it is very or somewhat likely that automation, robots, or AI will steal their job away within the next 5 years.

This isn’t about fear—it’s about readiness. The best way forward is to learn the tools and stay ahead. With Amazon and Gallup confirming AI’s workplace impact, the outlook on automation and employment in 2025 demands serious upskilling.

☕ Stock of the Day: Dutch Bros (BROS) Stock Analysis Q1 2025

Alright, let's talk about one of the more interesting consumer growth stories out there—Dutch Bros (BROS). You’ve probably seen their blue shops popping up everywhere, and apparently, the momentum is real.

🧾 The Numbers That Popped

Dutch Bros reported Q1 2025 results back in May and honestly, they crushed it. Revenue hit $355.2M, up a massive 29.1% year-over-year—that’s not small potatoes for a company this size. Same-store sales grew 4.7%, and they’re opening shops at warp speed: 30 new stores this quarter, bringing the total to 1,012.

They also posted $22.5M in net income, with adjusted EBITDA at $62.9M, up 19.7%. This shows they’re scaling profitably—something that’s not easy in food & beverage, especially with input costs being unpredictable.

🐂 Why I’m Hyped

I see a few key reasons for optimism:

• Their unit growth story is still in early innings. 160+ new shops this year? That’s wild.

• They’ve managed to grow without sacrificing margins, which tells me the model works.

• Technically, the stock began trending upwards, gaining a little bit of momentum upwards. Usually this results in a move higher.

Also, they’re smart about costs. Most of their 2025 coffee supply is already hedged, and they’re watching tariff risks closely. That’s a mature move for a still-young company.

🐻 What Could Go Wrong

Of course, it’s not all sunshine and caramel drizzle:

• The valuation is steep—you're paying a premium for growth, and if comps slow down or traffic softens, this could re-rate fast.

• Store-level execution matters. Rapid expansion can get messy if they open too fast or in weaker markets.

• Coffee is a volatile commodity. Even with hedging, it’s a factor worth keeping an eye on.

🎯 My Take

I like BROS. They’re not trying to be Starbucks—they’re building a different kind of cult brand, and it’s clearly resonating. But the price you pay matters. I’m keeping this on my watchlist for a pullback or signs of sustained technical support. For now, it’s a strong growth story with the usual high-growth risks.

🏠 Today’s Mortgage Rates + 2025 Outlook

📉 Forecast: Rates Will Trend Down—Slow and Steady

Mortgage forecasters agree: rates won’t plummet, but should drift slightly lower as inflation eases and the Fed inches toward cuts.

• Fannie Mae expects around 6.1% by year-end

• NerdWallet and LendingTree signal a gradual downtrend, but warn of volatility if tariffs or inflation resurge

My take? I expect a slow descent—perhaps a few basis points a month—reflecting what seasoned mortgage economist Jon Dovidio called a “gradual decrease over summer 2025” .

🧠 My Personal View

I’m leaning bullish (on falling rates). The Fed signaling two cuts this year, coupled with cooling inflation and resilient but slowing housing markets, all point to modest rate relief.
That said, any geopolitical tension or tariff flare-ups—say, another oil spike—could stall the downward path.

Here’s what I’m advising readers and clients:

• Don’t wait for a major rate crash—lock in if you feel comfortable around current mid‑6% levels.

• Shop lenders actively, even a 0.25% difference can save you thousands over 30 years.

• ALWAYS try to get a Seller Credit. Seller Credit rate buydowns can potentially decrease your interest rate by up to 1% or even more. Keep in mind though not all homes will allow for a seller credit.

Kyle Allgair
CEO of KPA Wealth
📞 (279) 977-8149 | ✉️ [email protected]
🌐 KPAhomeloans.com

Kyle Allgair is the CEO of KPA Wealth, and is continuously helping clients build wealth through real estate and strategic financial planning. Contact him for personalized advice on achieving your financial goals.