KPA Wealth Weekly: China, Tariffs, More Tariffs, Less Tariffs (But Really More Tariffs)

Welcome to KPA Wealth Weekly, your source for the latest in financial and mortgage markets. Each week, we share economic updates, rate trends, and tips to build a strong financial foundation. (Sorry for lack of posting these last few weeks, the trade war has destabilized this blog)

Let’s dive into this week’s highlights!

• Mortgage Interest Rates

• Stock Market Update and Trends

• Financial Numbers This Week

• Real Estate Market Update: Signs of Life for Buyers?

• This Week’s Wealth Strategy

Mortgage Interest Rates

Stock Market Update and Trends

Fed is in “Wait and See” mode. Otherwise known as, you are on your own market people! ​This week, the U.S.-China trade war escalated dramatically, sending shockwaves through global markets and intensifying fears of a recession. President Trump raised tariffs on Chinese imports to a staggering 145%, prompting China to retaliate with 125% tariffs on U.S. goods. The tit-for-tat measures have disrupted supply chains, driven up consumer prices, and led to significant market volatility. China has signaled a pause on further tariff hikes but is exploring other retaliatory actions, including export controls and legal challenges at the World Trade Organization. Meanwhile, small and midsize U.S. businesses are bearing the brunt of the increased costs, with many struggling to stay afloat amid the ongoing trade tensions. Somehow, the market takes this as bullish news? I think its going to go bearish real quickly.

Key Takeaway: Uncertainty is the same as fear. We expect stocks to make another leg downward.

Notable Earnings This Week:

This week’s earnings reports presented a mix of outcomes across various industries. Here's a quick summary:

• JPMorgan Chase (JPM): Reported strong Q1 earnings with EPS of $5.07 on $45.31 billion in revenue, surpassing forecasts. CEO Jamie Dimon warned of "considerable turbulence" due to current economic uncertainties. ​

• Wells Fargo (WFC): Posted EPS of $1.39, up from $1.20 a year earlier, beating expectations. However, revenue fell short at $20.15 billion, and net interest income declined due to lower interest rates. Shares declined approximately 2% following the report. ​

• Morgan Stanley (MS): Reported earnings per share of $2.23, a 10.4% increase compared to the same quarter last year, beating expectations. ​

• BlackRock (BLK): Reported EPS of $10.43, a 6.32% increase year-over-year, surpassing analyst expectations. ​

• Delta Air Lines (DAL): Reported Q1 EPS of $0.46, exceeding expectations. However, CEO Ed Bastian noted that growth has "largely stalled" due to global economic uncertainty and escalating trade tensions. ​

• Nike (NKE): Shares fell by 5% after predicting a significant drop in future revenue, attributing the downturn to geopolitical tensions, new tariffs, and diminishing consumer confidence.​

• FedEx (FDX): Stock declined by about 6% following its announcement that future revenues are expected to remain flat and it is reducing its profit outlook due to concerns about global demand and the impact of trade tensions.​

• Lennar (LEN): Shares dropped 4% as the company adjusted its forecast downwards for new orders and prices, citing high mortgage rates and inflation pressures that are making housing less affordable.​

• Boeing (BA): Contrarily, Boeing's stock rose roughly 5% after winning a major Pentagon contract for fighter jets worth over $20 billion, providing a boost to the company and the Dow index amidst a tough week for industrial stocks.​

• Tech Sector: Technology stocks saw a rebound later in the week, led by gains in major companies like Apple and Microsoft. However, Micron (MU) experienced an 8% drop due to ongoing issues with oversupply and demand in the chip industry. Meanwhile, Tesla (TSLA) saw a modest recovery, though it's still significantly down year-to-date.

These varied results highlight how forward guidance and broader market sentiments can heavily influence investor reactions, even when companies meet or exceed earnings expectations.

Financial News This Week

Here’s a concise summary of this week’s financial news:

Labor Market:

Employment Growth:

• In March 2025, the U.S. economy added 228,000 jobs, surpassing expectations and marking the 51st consecutive month of job growth. ​

• The unemployment rate edged up slightly to 4.2% from 4.1% in February, as more individuals entered the labor force.

Sector Highlights:

• Healthcare and Social Assistance: Led job gains with 54,000 new positions, reflecting continued strength in the sector. ​

• Federal Government: Experienced a decline in employment, with job losses attributed to budget constraints and policy shifts.

Manufacturing:

ISM Manufacturing PMI:

• The ISM Manufacturing PMI for March fell to 49.0, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity. This decline is attributed to rising input costs and uncertainties stemming from recent tariff implementations. ​

Core Business Goods Orders:

• While specific data on core business goods orders for March is pending, the contraction in manufacturing suggests potential softness in new orders and production levels.​

Trade and Tariffs:

• President Trump announced a 90-day pause on the implementation of higher tariffs for most countries, excluding China. This move is intended to provide a window for trade negotiations. ​

• Despite the pause, China increased its tariffs on U.S. imports to 125%, escalating the ongoing trade tensions between the two nations. ​

• The European Union is strategizing on how to respond to the U.S. tariffs, considering both trade negotiations and support measures for affected industries. ​

Monetary Policy:

• The Federal Reserve maintained its current interest rate stance, citing a solid labor market and inflation levels still above the 2% target. Officials emphasized the importance of monitoring economic developments to adjust policy as needed. ​

• St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem highlighted the need for a cautious approach to monetary policy, considering the potential impacts of ongoing trade tensions and market volatility. ​

Real Estate: Buy or Sell?

Real Estate Market Update: Rates Volatile. Buyers Showing Up.

Latest Developments:

📉 Home Sales Dynamics: Existing-home sales in February 2025 rose by 4.2% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.26 million units. However, year-over-year sales declined by 1.2%, indicating a market still in recovery. ​

🏡 Inventory and Listings: Housing inventory has increased, with a nearly 29% rise nationally, providing more options for buyers. This increase has led to price reductions in many markets, contributing to a more balanced market compared to recent years. ​

📈 Pricing Trends: Home prices continue to rise at a slower pace, with a 3.8% year-over-year increase, signaling stable equity gains for sellers and homeowners. ​

💡 Market Outlook: While the market is not fully a buyer's market yet, the trends indicate a move towards more balance between buyers and sellers. The stabilization of mortgage rates and a slight increase in inventory are contributing to this shift. Buyers might find better conditions now than in recent months, but should remain cautious and strategic in their decisions. ​

🏆 Bottom Line: The real estate market as of April 2025 suggests a gradual shift towards more favorable conditions for buyers. However, the market still presents challenges, such as relatively high mortgage rates and a modest increase in home prices. Buyers should approach the market with careful planning and consideration of the latest trends to make informed decisions.​

If you need more detailed information or have specific questions about the housing market, feel free to ask!

This Week’s Wealth Strategy

Tired of the same old financial advice? Below is a unique, non-mainstream wealth-building strategy tailored for entrepreneurs, realtors, and real estate investors (ages 21–50). Each strategy is actionable and designed for meaningful returns or long-term wealth. We break down how to implement them step-by-step, who they’re best for, what you need to get started, and the potential payoff. These aren’t your typical stock-and-bond tips – they’re fresh ideas you won’t hear from traditional finance gurus.

Strategy: “Arbitrage the Algorithm” – Generate Passive Income from Digital Land Leasing

Overview:
The term "digital real estate" usually gets tossed around in vague or speculative ways – but there’s a concrete strategy you can use today: build or lease under-monetized websites in profitable niches, rank them with SEO, and rent out the traffic to local businesses. Think of it as real estate lead generation with digital land. You don't need to be a tech guru. This model uses predictable systems (like WordPress + local SEO) to build small, niche-focused sites that generate calls or form leads – which you then lease to local service providers. Instead of flipping houses, you're flipping attention. Instead of tenants, you have plumbers, roofers, or law firms paying you $500–$2,000/month for leads or exclusive access to a well-ranked local website.

How to Implement (Step-by-Step):

1. Pick a “Cash Flow Niche”
   Choose local service businesses that:

   • Have high margins (legal, HVAC, roofing, cosmetic dentistry, etc.)

   • Spend money on ads

   • Rely on phone leads or form submissions
     Use tools like Google Trends, Ahrefs, or ChatGPT to brainstorm underserved but high-value niches in mid-sized cities.

2. Build a Local SEO Website
   Use WordPress or tools like GoHighLevel to build a basic 5-10 page site targeting a service and location (e.g. “Best Tree Trimming in Tulsa”). Focus on on-page SEO (keywords in title tags, headers, content) and add a call tracking number using CallRail or Twilio.

3. Rank the Site Locally
   Use Google Business Profile, citations (Yelp, BBB, local directories), and backlinks (guest posts, HARO, or niche edits) to boost rankings. You can also use cheap PPC ($5–$10/day) while your SEO builds momentum.

4. Route and Track Calls
   Set up call forwarding and recording. Once you’re getting 10–30 quality calls a month, you’ve built a real asset. Now you’re ready to lease it.

5. Lease the Leads or Website
   Approach local businesses (cold email, call, or walk-in) and offer exclusive call volume or site ownership for a flat fee (usually $500–$2,000/month depending on niche). You can also charge per lead if preferred.

6. Scale Like a Portfolio
   Once your first “digital land parcel” is cash-flowing, repeat the process with new niches or cities. You can outsource future builds, SEO, or outreach using contractors. Aim to build a portfolio of 5–10 mini digital properties generating $5–$15K/month passively.

👥 Who It’s Best Suited For:

• Realtors who understand local markets and can pitch lead systems to local businesses

• Entrepreneurs who want scalable, semi-passive cash flow

• Marketers or investors looking to diversify with low overhead and no physical assets

You don't need to code or be a web developer – if you can manage a team, run ads, or build partnerships, this strategy plays to your strengths.

Startup Costs & Required Skills:

• Startup Capital: $500–$2,000 per site (hosting, SEO tools, content, calls)

• Skills: Basic WordPress setup, local SEO understanding, or willingness to outsource; negotiation skills to close leasing deals

You can start scrappy and reinvest revenue to go higher-end with design or SEO firepower later.

Potential Returns & Outcomes:

• Monthly Income: Each site can generate $500–$2,000/month depending on call volume and niche competition

• Scalability: You can own 5–10+ sites within a year with systems in place

• Exit Potential: Sites with consistent call volume or lead generation history can be sold for 20x–40x monthly earnings

• Time Freedom: With calls routed and sites maintained by VAs or SEO pros, this becomes a semi-passive income stream after initial setupThank you for reading! If you found this newsletter helpful, please share it with anyone who might benefit. Stay tuned for 1-2 posts every week with the latest market updates and insights.

Kyle Allgair
CEO of KPA Home Loans
📞 (279) 977-8149 | ✉️ [email protected]
🌐 KPAhomeloans.com

Kyle Allgair is the CEO of KPA Home Loans, with years of experience helping clients build wealth through real estate and strategic financial planning. Contact him for personalized advice on achieving your financial goals.