Welcome to KPA Wealth Weekly, your source for the latest in financial and mortgage markets. Our goal is for each week, to share economic updates, rate trends, and tips to build a strong financial foundation. Most posts will now be on Mondays, reflecting on the previous week and forecasting the current week.

Let’s dive into last week’s highlights and this weeks upcoming info!

• Mortgage Interest Rates

• Stock Market Update and Economy

• Financial Numbers Last Week and Upcoming

• Real Estate Market Update: Signs of Life for Buyers?

• This Week’s Wealth Strategy

Mortgage Interest Rates

Stock Market Update and Trends

I am going to predict the future hold on… We are going to hit all time highs in the stock market this year and pretty damn fast. Take advantage of this the best you can.

Key News last Week: Israel and Iran are officially at war. Israel proceeded with assassinating Archduke Ferdinand when they went ahead and bombed the living hell out of Iran late last week. This caused a drop in the stock market overall as it seemed like people were fearful of oil prices skyrocketing and hurting consumers as a result of a middle eastern war. Today we have already recovered from this drop and then some. On top of all this we have some pretty big California protests in LA and other areas, which seems like a recurring trend during the Trump administration… hmmm…

You might also wonder why tacos are trending… Taco stands for trump always chickens out. Is this true or is he really smart with his negotiating tactics?

Upcoming Stock Related News: We have a fed meeting that starts Tuesday and ends Wednesday. The fed is expected with a 99.8% priced in chance to keep rates the same, and a 0.2% chance they lower by 0.25 basis points. Today we have a 20 year bond auction, tomorrow we get retail sales numbers and the NAHB housing market index, Wednesday we get jobless claims and mortgage apps numbers, and Thursday we get Juneteenth.

Financial News Last Week

Here’s a concise summary of this week’s financial news:

Inflation

Consumer Price Index (CPI) – Released June 11, 2025

• May CPI rose 0.1% month-over-month, and 2.4% year-over-year, aligning with expectations.

• Core CPI (excluding food & energy) climbed 0.2% MoM, holding at 2.8% YoY 

Producer Price Index (PPI) – Released June 12, 2025

• Final demand PPI for May rose 0.1% MoM, after a decline in April.

• Over the past 12 months, PPI increased 2.6% .

Initial Jobless Claims – Released June 12, 2025

• Weekly initial claims slightly elevated; estimated around 241,000 (vs prior ~247,000) .

Manufacturing & Activity

ISM Manufacturing PMI – May reading (reported week of June 9)

• PMI contracted at 48.5, an improvement from April’s 48.7.

• New orders rose to 47.6 (from 47.2); production climbed to 45.4 (from 44.0)

Retail Sales

May Retail Sales – Published June 12–13, 2025

• May retail sales rose 0.1% MoM, rebounding from April's –0.7% drop .

Summary

Last week’s data paints a nuanced picture of the U.S. economy:

• Inflation remains moderate, with both CPI and PPI showing modest gains.

• Labor market stays strong, but signs of softening exist (claims elevated; slower job gains).

• Manufacturing remains in mild contraction, yet new orders and production are improving.

• Retail sales show modest recovery, though consumer demand remains cautious.

Real Estate: Buy or Sell? Answer: BUY

Market Balance & Buyer Power

• Pending Sales & Speed to Contract
  Pending home sales declined 1.1% over the past year, and only 37.6% closed within two weeks—the slowest pace since spring 2020

• Supply Surpassing Demand
  There are approximately 500,000 more sellers than buyers, indicating shifting market control toward buyers.

• Price Gap Lowering Costs
  Sellers listed homes at a median of $425,950, but buyers paid a median of $397,000—a 7% discount.

✅ Why These Trends Support a “Buy” Lean

• Reduced competition: Fewer bidding wars and lower above-asking sales ease pressure on buyers.

• Price negotiation leverage: A clear gap between listing and sale prices gives buyers bargaining power.

• Slowing market dynamics: Declining pending sales and slowed contract timelines point to cooling demand.

• Greater choice: Elevated seller-to-buyer ratios expand options for prospective buyers.

💡 Bottom Line: Leaning “Buy”

The latest data shows a buyer’s market emerging—lower price competition, rising inventory, and time advantages for buyers. Now may be a more favorable time to purchase, especially with discounted prices and improved choice.

The best strategy for a homebuyer exists right now, negotiate a seller credit to get your interest rate from the 6’s down to the 5’s and maybe even have the seller pay your closing costs.

🚨 Misinformation Alert

Redfin’s claim—that today’s housing market has 500,000 more sellers than buyers—is not only misleading, it’s also rooted in a shaky methodology that skews perception. The original source of the data was Redfin’s Head of Economic Research, Chen Zhao, who benefits from amplifying buyer fear and creating headlines around rising home prices.

Here’s what’s really going on:

• Redfin says there are 1.94 million home sellers, based on active listings pulled from the MLS. But data from Realtor.com, which also sources from the MLS, only counted 959,000 active listings in April—the same month Redfin used.

• To estimate buyers, Redfin divided 4.4 million annual home sales by 12 months, arriving at about 400,000 buyers per month—but that’s only part of the story. Many of those are new homes, and of the 504,000 new homes for sale, a large portion are still under contract or not even finished. Only 117,000 are actually completed and ready to move in.

🤔 A “Buyer Count” Built on Guesswork

Because there's no real-time way to measure how many buyers are actively shopping, Redfin simply made one up. They admitted to creating a buyer estimate by combining their assumptions about sales velocity and tour-to-close timelines, then applying that estimate to current listings.

The result? A totally made-up “buyer-to-seller” ratio that overstates seller dominance in the market.

✅ What This Actually Means for You

The takeaway here isn’t panic—it’s opportunity.

• Inventory is not exploding beyond buyer demand.

• Many sellers are still stuck with unrealistic expectations, meaning more negotiation power for buyers.

• Media headlines may be grabbing attention, but the fundamentals don’t support a buyer crisis.

This isn’t a market to be afraid of—it’s one to understand and navigate strategically. More listings and more time on market? That’s buyer leverage.

📈 This Week’s Wealth Strategy

Tired of the same old financial advice? Below is a unique, non-mainstream wealth-building strategy tailored for entrepreneurs, realtors, and real estate investors. Each strategy is actionable and designed for meaningful returns or long-term wealth. These aren’t your typical stock-and-bond tips – they’re fresh ideas you won’t hear from traditional finance gurus.

Strategy: “Dividend Rent” – Selling Covered Calls for Passive Income on Stocks You Already Own

Overview:

If you own 100+ shares of a stock, you’re sitting on untapped cash flow potential. Covered call writing lets you rent out your stock positions by selling the right (but not the obligation) for someone else to buy them at a higher price. In return, you collect option premiums—just like collecting rent from a tenant.

You keep the premium whether the buyer exercises the option or not. Rinse and repeat. It’s one of the best-kept secrets for generating passive, tax-advantaged income with minimal effort—especially during flat or sideways markets.

This strategy is perfect for long-term investors, self-employed pros parking profits in blue-chip stocks, or realtors looking to generate cash flow without owning real estate.

How to Implement (Step-by-Step):

📦 Step 1: Own at Least 100 Shares of a Stock

• This is a requirement—you can’t sell a covered call unless you own the stock.

• Best done on steady, large-cap companies (e.g. Apple, JPMorgan, Procter & Gamble).

💸 Step 2: Pick a Strike Price and Expiration Date

• Use platforms like TD Ameritrade, E*TRADE, or Fidelity.

• Choose a strike price above current market value (out-of-the-money).

• Go for 1–4 weeks out for fast, repeated premium income.

🧠 Step 3: Sell the Call Option

• Sell 1 call contract per 100 shares owned.

• You immediately get paid the option premium (aka your "rent").

🔁 Step 4: Reassess Each Month

• If the stock stays below the strike, you keep your shares and the premium.

• If it rises above, the stock may be called away—but you still profit from appreciation plus the premium.

• Re-buy or rotate into a new position to repeat the cycle.

👥 Who It’s Best Suited For:

• Realtors, entrepreneurs, and solopreneurs with brokerage accounts and idle stock.

• Investors wanting passive cash flow from existing assets.

• People tired of low-yield savings and volatile crypto trades.

Kyle Allgair
CEO of KPA Home Loans
📞 (279) 977-8149 | ✉️ [email protected]
🌐 KPAhomeloans.com

Kyle Allgair is the CEO of KPA Home Loans, with years of experience helping clients build wealth through real estate and strategic financial planning. Contact him for personalized advice on achieving your financial goals.