The Fed Will Not Cut Rates Tomorrow.

But September is Possible.

Author

Kyle Allgair
July 29, 2025

Welcome back to KPA Wealth. — Today we talk about how the fed is not likely to cut rates tomorrow due to inflation readings.

The Fed Meeting on July 30, 2025: Expecting No Rate Cut, But Eyes on September

The Federal Open Market Committee will convene on July 29–30, concluding in a rate decision on Wednesday, July 30, 2025. All signs point toward no interest rate cut at this meeting, as policymakers remain cautious given persistent inflation above the 2% target and ongoing uncertainty about tariff impacts.

Despite some internal pressure, including dissents from Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman favoring a 25‑basis‑point cut, the majority of the committee is expected to vote to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% .

Looking ahead, the September meeting (scheduled for September 16–17, 2025) is viewed as the likeliest venue for the first rate cut of 2025. Markets currently assign roughly a 60%–63% probability to a 25‑basis‑point reduction then, as traders await further labor market and inflation data before adjusting expectations .

Goldman Sachs Research has joined this view, projecting cuts beginning in September and expecting multiple 25‑point reductions through the rest of 2025, possibly extending into 2026, with a projected terminal rate near 3.0%–3.25%

In summary: July’s meeting is almost certainly a hold, given stubborn inflation and uncertainty from trade policy. But barring a negative surprise from upcoming data, September appears set to deliver the first cut, potentially launching a gradual easing cycle that continues into year‑end.

Here is the percentage chance of a rate cut in Septembers meeting.

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Kyle Allgair
CEO of KPA Wealth
📞 (279) 977-8149 | ✉️ [email protected]
🌐 KPAhomeloans.com

Kyle Allgair is the CEO of KPA Wealth, and is continuously helping clients build wealth through real estate and strategic financial planning. Contact him for personalized advice on achieving your financial goals.